How Hard Is It to Predict the Winner

I got an invite to the horses last week. A friend of mine at work had a spare ticket and thought that I would enjoy the experience. I’ve never been to a horse race before, but I know what to expect and I know that I am going to want to place a few bets at least.

So the question which jumps out at me is, how do I predict the winner.

There is the obvious choice of just selecting the favourite and hoping that they prove the bookies right. But then if I only back the favourites, which the bookies will have put really short odds on, then it would only take one of the seven horses to not win and I wouldn’t be making a profit.

Then we have the other option of calling up a friend of mine, who knows someone, who knows someone, who works at a stable and getting the inside knowledge. My only issue with this is not that the information is coming over fourth-hand, but that if this was actually really useful information, why are they giving it to me and why are they not using it to make themselves millionaires?

Then there is the third and final option for me. I have to analyse the data and make an estimated guess. With the wealth of horse racing sites around, it is easy to find any piece of information you could possibly want to gather together and analyse it.

I’ve pulled the last five races for each horse. How the turf was running, the pedigree of the other horses, how many horses there were in the race, what distance the race was run over, if the horses were wearing blinkers or a head net and naturally the jokey riding the horse.

How would you assign a value to a horse which won a five horse race against a horse which came second in a fifteen horse race. This is where the element of experience comes in and annoyingly I don’t have it. What I do have is a group of websites which have all rated the horses and are willing to tell me their ratings.

So I’ve taken the ratings for each horse in the meeting and averaged them out. I’ve then compared this to their current odds. The best thing about this is that I can do all of my betting before I even head to the track and betting on horse racing online is easier than ever before.

I can know exactly how much money I might lose and conversely I know, to the penny, how much I could win.

There is no way my system should win. I mean who on earth could possibly know which horse is going to win any race, especially when some races are won by a head or even a nose. The important thing is that I have had fun making my system and I’ll have a load of fun at the meeting, not worrying about getting a bet on.